1801 Queens Rd, Charlotte, NC 28207
Macro context
30-year mortgage rate proxy: 10Y + 250bps = 6.97% (vs underwriting rate 8.00%).
HouseCanary AVM anchor
Asking price $2.90M vs HC AVM $3.78M (-23.3% delta).
Key risks
- DSCR below 1.10 — thin margin on debt coverage
- Year-1 cash-on-cash below 4% — opportunity-cost vs treasuries
- 5-year levered IRR below 8% — limited upside on appreciation assumptions
- Deal classified marginal — requires concession on price, rent, or rehab scope
AVM ($3.78M) differs from purchase price ($2.90M) by 30.4%. Investigate before action — possible property-specific factors (condition, ownership type, undisclosed encumbrances).
5-yr levered IRR -28.8% with DSCR -0.03 does not clear residential return thresholds.
Page 2 · Year-1 Monthly Pro Forma
| Line item | M1 | M2 | M3 | M4 | M5 | M6 | M7 | M8 | M9 | M10 | M11 | M12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GPR | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 | $3,680 |
| Vacancy | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 | $-184 |
| EGI | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 | $3,496 |
| Property tax | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 | $-3,308 |
| Insurance | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 | $-150 |
| Maintenance | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 | $-368 |
| PM fee | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 | $-280 |
| HOA | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| NOI | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 | $-610 |
| Debt service | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k |
| Cash flow | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k | $-19k |
Page 3 · Property Value + Rent Comps
HouseCanary current AVM + forward forecast
HC value_forecast returns monthly forecasts to 36 months; the 5-year value is extrapolated from the 36-month CAGR.
Rent comps / RentCast AVM
| Address | Asking rent | $/sqft |
|---|
Indicated value (residential): HouseCanary AVM is the canonical valuation for 1-4 unit properties — no sales-comp adjustment grid on SFR memos.
Page 4 · Sensitivities
| $3,312 | $3,496 | $3,680 | $3,864 | $4,048 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $3403k | -19.2% | -19.1% | -18.9% | -18.8% | -18.6% |
| $3592k | -19.6% | -19.4% | -19.3% | -19.1% | -19.0% |
| $3781k | -19.8% | -19.7% | -19.5% | -19.4% | -19.3% |
| $3970k | -20.1% | -19.9% | -19.8% | -19.7% | -19.5% |
| $4159k | -20.3% | -20.2% | -20.1% | -19.9% | -19.8% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% appr | -35.1% | -28.8% | -25.1% |
| 100% appr | -35.1% | -28.8% | -25.1% |
| 150% appr | -35.1% | -28.8% | -25.1% |
| 3yr | 5yr | 7yr | |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.75% | -32.8% | -26.3% | -22.6% |
| -0.25% | -34.4% | -27.9% | -24.3% |
| +0.00% | -35.1% | -28.8% | -25.1% |
| +0.25% | -35.9% | -29.6% | -26.0% |
| +0.75% | -37.5% | -31.3% | -27.7% |
Page 5 · Strategy Analysis — FLIP
Total cost basis
Profit + annualized return
Page 6 · Reconciliation & Methodology
Forward AVM
Data layer used: housecanary
At a going-in cap rate of 2.15%, a Year 1 DSCR of 0.38, and a cash-on-cash return of -8.3%, the buy-and-hold economics are structurally broken — debt service consumes far more income than the asset produces, which is precisely why the classifier flags CoC of -8.3% against the 4% threshold and DSCR of 0.38 against the 1.10 threshold, landing the deal firmly in marginal territory. The fix-and-flip path offers no meaningful escape: a projected flip profit of $5,256 on a $2,900,000 purchase against a $175,000 rehab budget produces an annualized return of 0.1%, which is economically indistinguishable from zero. The HouseCanary AVM of $3,780,710 and ARV of $3,780,000 are tightly aligned, which eliminates the possibility that suppressed comp values are masking genuine upside — the 5-yr levered IRR of 0.2% and equity multiple of 1.33x confirm that the DCF is not generating returns that justify the basis. To shift classification toward a viable buy-and-hold, the purchase price would need to compress materially from $2,900,000 to a level where debt service coverage clears 1.10x, or gross rents would need to expand sufficiently to push the GRM well below its current 19.33 — neither of which is achievable through rehab alone given the modest $175,000 budget.
At 2.15%, the going-in cap rate sits roughly 150–200 basis points below the 3.5%–4.0% floor most Sun Belt buy-and-hold underwriters require on single-family residential at this price point, signaling the asset is priced for appreciation rather than income. A Year 1 cash-on-cash of -8.3% and a DSCR of 0.38 are not merely thin — they represent a property that covers less than half its debt service from operations, a structural deficit that no reasonable rent-growth assumption resolves within a standard hold period. The 5-year levered IRR of 0.2% and a 1.33x equity multiple over five years fall well short of the 12%–15% IRR and 1.6x–2.0x multiple that mid-market REPE sponsors target for stabilized residential holds in the Carolinas, and the flip scenario at $5,256 profit and 0.1% annualized return offers no credible exit alternative. The AVM of $3,780,710 against a $2,900,000 purchase price creates a surface appearance of embedded equity, but with returns this compressed across every metric, that gap reflects market pricing of the asset's income limitations rather than actionable upside the underwriting can monetize.
Buy-and-hold is the operative strategy here, and a Year 1 DSCR of 0.38 means the property generates less than forty cents of net operating income for every dollar of debt service — a structural cash flow deficit, not a timing issue. At a -8.3% cash-on-cash return against a $2,900,000 purchase price, the annual shortfall requires sustained out-of-pocket capital contributions that compound the risk of a prolonged vacancy event erasing any remaining equity cushion. The $175,000 rehab budget carries standard overrun exposure, but with a 5-year levered IRR of only 0.2% and an equity multiple of 1.33x, there is no margin of safety to absorb cost creep before the return profile turns negative in present-value terms. The HouseCanary AVM of $3,780,710 sitting above the $2,900,000 purchase price superficially implies embedded equity, but a going-in cap rate of 2.15% and a GRM of 19.33 signal that current income cannot support the valuation — meaning any market softening that compresses buyer appetite for sub-3% cap assets directly threatens the exit, and the $5,256 flip profit at a 0.1% annualized return confirms there is no viable near-term disposition alternative either.